What moves the price
Tonnage and sizing. Bigger homes need more capacity, but oversizing is the classic contractor shortcut — it cools fast, dehumidifies badly and cycles itself to an early death. Insist on a Manual J load calculation, not a rule of thumb.
SEER2 rating. Federal minimums are 13.4 (North) and 14.3 (South). In long cooling seasons — Texas, Arizona, Florida, the Gulf — 16–18 SEER2 equipment usually pays back through lower bills; in short seasons, minimum-efficiency often makes better financial sense.
Refrigerant transition. New systems ship with R-454B or R-32. Quotes to "top up" an old R-410A system are increasingly poor value as that refrigerant phases down — factor it into repair-or-replace math.
Ductwork condition. Leaky ducts waste 20–30% of cooling. If ducts are original to an older home, sealing or replacing them alongside the new unit often beats a higher-SEER condenser on payback.
Permits and code extras. Hurricane strapping in Florida, seismic straps in California, rooftop crane time in Phoenix — legitimate line items that vary by metro. The city guides above flag what's normal locally.