Why heat-pump savings depend on local prices
A heat pump moves heat instead of creating it with electric resistance. A seasonal coefficient of performance of 2.8 means about 2.8 units of heat are delivered for each unit of electricity across the modeled season. That can produce large savings against electric baseboard, oil or propane, while cheap natural gas can be a closer comparison.
The tool starts with current annual space-heating spend and fuel price to estimate fuel quantity. It applies the current system efficiency to estimate useful heat delivered to the home, then divides that useful heat by the entered heat-pump seasonal COP. Finally it prices the required electricity at your local rate.
Use space-heating cost only where possible. A gas bill may also include water heating, cooking and fixed charges; an oil delivery can span more than one heating season. If those items remain in the number, the tool will overstate the heat demand and the heat-pump cost.
Choose the current fuel unit carefully
Natural gas is entered per therm, oil and propane per gallon, and electric systems per kilowatt-hour. The form changes its starting price and efficiency when the fuel changes, but those are only editable examples. Replace them with a current bill. For an older heat pump, the “current efficiency” represents seasonal COP; for electric resistance it should be 1.0.
Fixed charges usually remain even if another gas appliance keeps the account open, so excluding them produces a cleaner marginal comparison. If a heat pump would allow the gas account to close entirely, calculate that fixed saving separately and confirm what other appliances must change.
Seasonal COP is the input worth challenging
A mild-day COP is not a winter average. Capacity and efficiency change with outdoor temperature, defrost, indoor setpoint, supply temperature, backup heat and duct condition. Cold-climate equipment may retain capacity better, but the selected model still needs its performance tables checked against the home’s design temperature.
ENERGY STAR’s air-source heat-pump guidance distinguishes cold-climate equipment and stresses correct selection and operation. Ask the contractor for rated output at local design conditions, the balance point, backup-heat staging and the load calculation—not only the nominal tonnage.